Flash Norvia | July
Norvia’s July Flash brings together the main developments in foreign trade, technology, capital markets and geopolitics. This edition highlights how tariffs, artificial intelligence investment, the reopening of the stock market and trade diversification shaped decisions by companies and investors throughout the month.
US tariffs confirmed, with an expanded exception list. After months of negotiation, the US government confirmed, on July 15, an additional 25% tariff on Brazilian goods, in effect since July 22. The final version excluded more than 2,100 products from the surcharge, including coffee, beef, orange juice and aerospace parts. The episode reinforced a trend already underway: the American share of Brazilian foreign trade fell to 11.2% in the first five months of the year, the lowest level on record.
The artificial intelligence bill keeps growing, and the market starts demanding returns. Capital expenditure from the world’s largest data center operators is set to reach $750 billion in 2026. Meta revised the budget of a single project from $27 billion to more than $50 billion, yet saw its market value drop after recent earnings, along with other hyperscalers. The latest corporate response is reselling idle computing capacity, a sign that return discipline has reached the sector.
Brazil’s stock market tests a selective reopening. Compass’s IPO in May ended nearly five years without offerings on the B3. More than 50 companies already hold active registration with the securities regulator, but the election calendar should keep most of them waiting until 2027. The deal’s entirely secondary structure and strong foreign participation show risk appetite exists, but has returned more selective.
Trade diversification gains traction. As the relationship with the United States grows more tense, Mercosur advances on other fronts. The agreement with the European Union, approved in January, began applying provisionally in May. Negotiations with Canada already have 60% of the text concluded, with Ottawa aiming to close the deal within 2026.
Geopolitical relief helps contain global inflation. The possible end of the Middle East conflict brought oil prices back near pre-war levels, easing part of the pressure on price indexes worldwide and improving short term inflation expectations.
What stays on the radar for August. This week’s Central Bank decision, with the Selic rate starting at 14.25%, should confirm the continuation of the rate cutting cycle. Progress on the Mercosur-Canada deal and the evolution of the US tariff remain on the radar, along with how Brazil’s capital markets behave against the backdrop of the 2026 election calendar.
