Economy

Brazil’s GDP grew just 0.5% in the second quarter, less than half the prior gain, as households felt the weight of high interest rates. For Norvia, this kind of slowdown separates those who built cash discipline from those who were simply counting on the rate cutting cycle.

After the agreement with the European Union, Mercosur is now negotiating with Canada, with 60% of the text already concluded. Each new deal reduces relative dependence on any single trading partner, including the United States.

Brazil’s Central Bank opens the second half with the Selic rate starting at 14.25% and markets pricing in another 0.25 point cut. The direction of the cycle is set, but room for further cuts by December keeps shrinking.

Norvia's July Flash brings together the main developments in foreign trade, technology, capital markets and geopolitics. This edition highlights how tariffs, artificial intelligence, the stock market reopening and trade diversification shaped decisions by companies and investors throughout the month.

Compass's IPO ended nearly five years without a single initial public offering on Brazil's B3 exchange, but the deal's structure shows the market has returned more selective. More than 50 companies are already technically ready to go public, though the election calendar should keep most of them waiting until 2027.

Capital expenditure from the world's largest data center operators is set to reach $750 billion in 2026, nearly double the figure from two years ago. The market is starting to question whether every company behind that investment will capture returns in equal measure.

The US decision on a 25% tariff on Brazilian goods lands at a moment when America's share of the country's foreign trade has already fallen to its lowest level on record. The episode confirms that market diversification has stopped being a long-term strategy and become immediate risk management.

The debate around the possible end of the 6x1 work schedule goes beyond labor relations. It exposes a structural challenge in the Brazilian economy: the need to generate more value per hour worked through technology, management and operational efficiency.

The June edition of Flash Norvia highlights key movements across technology, the economy, consumer behavior, labor markets and business management. This issue explores how artificial intelligence, interest rates, productivity, digital behavior and efficiency pressures are shaping decisions for companies and investors.

A snapshot of key market shifts: Amazon monetizing logistics, Brazil’s delivery war, AI strengthening industry giants, regulatory pressures, retail discipline and shifting consumer trends.

Key global developments of the week: geopolitical tensions, trade disputes, health alerts, the global AI race, rare‑earth competition, regulatory risks and shifting international dynamics.

Private payroll loans are expanding fast, but interest rates no longer reflect their real risk. The mismatch threatens families, credit quality, and financial stability.

Oil is the leading indicator of geopolitical tension. Conflicts, risk, and strategic disruptions drive volatility, inflation, and energy shocks worldwide.

Wars go far beyond territory. They are strategic moves to gain economic power, resources, and global influence, reshaping the entire geopolitical landscape.

Norvia’s Global Radar analyzes the key macroeconomic trends shaping 2026: record global debt, U.S. interest rates, private credit expansion, China’s slowdown, energy volatility, and the new phase of the artificial intelligence cycle. A strategic overview for globally minded investors and business leaders.

The cosmetics market goes beyond consumption. In Brazil, it reflects income levels, innovation capacity, regulatory efficiency, and competitiveness, positioning itself as a key barometer of the economy.

Markets have revised inflation expectations downward for 2026 once again, signaling greater confidence in price stability despite persistently high interest rates and moderate economic growth.

In 2025, a high interest rate environment reshaped the investment market, making capital more selective and reinforcing the importance of strong fundamentals, financial discipline, and a long-term perspective in business decisions.