Financial Markets

Gold went from a historic record in January to a drop of more than 25% by June. The 2026 cycle shows the metal hedges well against some risks and poorly against others, which changes how a position should be sized in a portfolio.

Brazil’s Central Bank opens the second half with the Selic rate starting at 14.25% and markets pricing in another 0.25 point cut. The direction of the cycle is set, but room for further cuts by December keeps shrinking.

Compass's IPO ended nearly five years without a single initial public offering on Brazil's B3 exchange, but the deal's structure shows the market has returned more selective. More than 50 companies are already technically ready to go public, though the election calendar should keep most of them waiting until 2027.

The US decision on a 25% tariff on Brazilian goods lands at a moment when America's share of the country's foreign trade has already fallen to its lowest level on record. The episode confirms that market diversification has stopped being a long-term strategy and become immediate risk management.

Private payroll loans are expanding fast, but interest rates no longer reflect their real risk. The mismatch threatens families, credit quality, and financial stability.

Markets have revised inflation expectations downward for 2026 once again, signaling greater confidence in price stability despite persistently high interest rates and moderate economic growth.

In 2025, a high interest rate environment reshaped the investment market, making capital more selective and reinforcing the importance of strong fundamentals, financial discipline, and a long-term perspective in business decisions.